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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
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KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 09:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DET
46.1%
KC
53.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • DET offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • KC offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (DET): -0.036 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET crossing 6 time zone(s)
  • DET defense: +0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

DET

DeAndre Levy LB Out Hip
LaAdrian Waddle T Questionable Knee
Joique Bell RB Probable Ankle
Calvin Johnson WR Probable Not Injury Related
Sam Martin P Probable left Knee
Brandon Pettigrew TE Probable Elbow
Matthew Stafford QB Probable Quadricep
Stephen Tulloch LB Probable Illness
Rashean Mathis CB Probable Illness

KC

Mike Devito DE Out Concussion
Ben Grubbs G Out Neck
Ramik Wilson LB Out Ankle
Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee
Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin
Jeremy Maclin WR Probable Concussion
Joshua Mauga LB Probable Groin
Dontari Poe DT Probable Ankle
Alex Smith QB Probable right Thumb
Charcandrick West RB Probable Pectoral

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 10
–
KC 45

Prediction missed by 32 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:13 FG DET (9:13) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – KC 0
  • Q1 04:12 TD KC (4:12) 13-D.Thomas left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – KC 6
  • Q2 12:07 TD KC (12:07) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith scrambles left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – KC 13
  • Q2 08:36 FG KC (8:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DET 3 – KC 17
  • Q2 03:31 TD KC (3:31) 35-C.West left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – KC 23
  • Q3 08:58 TD KC (8:58) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – KC 30
  • Q4 10:16 TD KC (10:16) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 19-J.Maclin for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – KC 37
  • Q4 07:29 TD DET (7:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 16-L.Moore for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – KC 38
  • Q4 06:44 TD KC (6:44) (Shotgun) 32-S.Ware right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 10 – KC 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 92%

    (9:13) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:21) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to KC 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-D.Thomas to KC 29 for no gain (26-D.Carey).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:21) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DET 32, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-G.Tate to DET 37 for 5 yards (39-H.Abdullah). PENALTY on DET-10-C.Fuller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 34.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to KC 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-D.Thomas to KC 27 for no gain (38-G.Winn).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (8:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:03) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to KC 31, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-D.Thomas to KC 25 for -6 yards (26-D.Carey; 38-G.Winn).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:41) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to DET 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 55%

    (14:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at KC 45 for -6 yards (sack split by 50-J.Houston and 91-T.Hali).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 37%

    (12:45) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to DET 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-17-C.Conley.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:12) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to KC 47, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-D.Thomas to DET 16 for 37 yards (48-D.Muhlbach).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 83%

    (7:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 85-E.Ebron to KC 21 for 5 yards (27-T.Branch).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:50) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to KC 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-D.Thomas to KC 33 for 5 yards (95-B.Copeland).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 2 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 32%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DET 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-42-A.Sherman.