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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 39

Detroit Lions 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at KC 45 for -6 yards (sack split by 50-J.Houston and 91-T.Hali).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.59 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model