4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 26

Detroit Lions 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 38

What Actually Happened

(7:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 85-E.Ebron to KC 21 for 5 yards (27-T.Branch).

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.31 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model