Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 72

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(1:21) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to DET 32, Center-41-J.Winchester. 15-G.Tate to DET 37 for 5 yards (39-H.Abdullah). PENALTY on DET-10-C.Fuller, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.33 EP
67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model