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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 46

Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to DET 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-17-C.Conley.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.93 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP