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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 48

Kansas City Chiefs 45 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DET 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-42-A.Sherman.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.86 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -1.75 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP