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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(8:36) (Field Goal formation) 5-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.57 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model