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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2015-10-25 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

TB
36.3%
WAS
63.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: -0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • TB on 7 more days rest than WAS
  • Jameis Winston (TB): -0.082 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 19
–
WAS 24
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

TB

Reid Fragel T Out Concussion
Tony McDaniel DT Out Groin
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Out Shoulder
Russell Shepard WR Questionable Hamstring
Bruce Carter LB Questionable Thigh
Logan Mankins G Questionable Groin
Evan Smith C Questionable Ankle
Johnthan Banks CB Probable Knee
Chris Conte S Probable Ankle
George Johnson DE Probable Ribs
Luke Stocker TE Probable Hip
Gerald McCoy DT Probable Shoulder

WAS

Chris Culliver CB Out Knee
DeAngelo Hall CB Out Toe
DeSean Jackson WR Out Hamstring
Kory Lichtensteiger C Out Neck
Chris Thompson RB Doubtful Back
Keenan Robinson LB Questionable Heel
Jason Hatcher DE Questionable Knee
Stephen Paea DE Questionable Back
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Concussion
Trent Williams T Questionable Concussion
Bashaud Breeland CB Probable Knee
Matt Jones RB Probable Toe
Ty Nsekhe T Probable Foot
Andre Roberts WR Probable Thumb
Trenton Robinson S Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 30
–
WAS 31

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:55 TD TB (11:55) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – WAS 0
  • Q1 05:10 FG TB (5:10) 10-C.Barth 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 10 – WAS 0
  • Q2 11:41 TD TB (11:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 17-D.Dye for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 16 – WAS 0
  • Q2 08:31 TD TB (8:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at WAS 46 for -9 yards (56-J.Smith). FUMBLES (56-J.Smith) [90-H.Melton], RECOVERED by TB-95-H.Jones at WAS 43. 95-H.Jones for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 23 – WAS 0
  • Q2 04:32 TD WAS (4:32) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 24 – WAS 6
  • Q3 11:15 TD WAS (11:15) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 14-R.Grant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 24 – WAS 13
  • Q3 07:01 TD WAS (7:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 86-J.Reed for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 24 – WAS 20
  • Q4 13:57 FG TB (13:57) 10-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 27 – WAS 21
  • Q4 07:33 FG WAS (7:33) 3-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. TB 27 – WAS 24
  • Q4 02:27 FG TB (2:27) 10-C.Barth 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 30 – WAS 24
  • Q4 00:28 TD WAS (:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 86-J.Reed for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 30 – WAS 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:17) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to TB 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-B.Rainey to TB 36 for 9 yards (51-W.Compton; 47-Q.Dunbar).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:44) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to TB 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-B.Rainey to TB 25 for 12 yards (22-D.Everett, 54-M.Foster).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (5:10) 10-C.Barth 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:45) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to TB 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-B.Rainey to TB 28 for -3 yards (22-D.Everett).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:02) 5-J.Schum punts 49 yards to WAS 29, Center-48-A.DePaola. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 33 for 4 yards (51-D.Lansanah).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 22%

    (1:32) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to TB 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-20-J.Johnson.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 14 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 80%

    (13:57) 10-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (7:33) 3-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (2:27) 10-C.Barth 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.