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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 17

Washington Commanders 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 3-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model