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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 10-C.Barth 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.69 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model