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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 82

Washington Commanders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to TB 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-B.Rainey to TB 28 for -3 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.17 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model