4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 73

Washington Commanders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to TB 27, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-B.Rainey to TB 36 for 9 yards (51-W.Compton; 47-Q.Dunbar).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.99 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model