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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 52

Washington Commanders 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to TB 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-20-J.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model