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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(13:57) 10-C.Barth 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.88 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 37, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.98 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model