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New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
Monday 2015-10-19 · 20:30 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

NYG
56.0%
PHI
44.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: +0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): +0.232 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 23
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NYG

Victor Cruz WR Out Calf
Devon Kennard LB Out Hamstring
Prince Amukamara CB Out Pectoral
Odell Beckham WR Questionable Hamstring
Trumaine McBride CB Questionable Groin
Robert Ayers DE Questionable Hamstring
Jon Beason LB Questionable Concussion
Jonathan Casillas LB Questionable Calf
Justin Pugh G Probable Ankle
George Selvie DE Probable Calf
Rueben Randle WR Probable Hamstring

PHI

Nelson Agholor WR Out Ankle
Kiko Alonso LB Out Knee
Brandon Bair DE Out Groin
Mychal Kendricks LB Out Hamstring
Ryan Mathews RB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 7
–
PHI 27

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:27 TD NYG (10:27) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – PHI 0
  • Q1 03:40 TD PHI (3:40) (No Huddle) 7-S.Bradford pass deep left to 14-R.Cooper for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – PHI 6
  • Q2 12:33 TD PHI (12:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left intended for 17-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 23-N.Carroll at NYG 17. 23-N.Carroll for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – PHI 13
  • Q2 00:07 FG PHI (:07) 6-C.Sturgis 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. NYG 7 – PHI 17
  • Q3 06:19 TD PHI (6:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-D.Murray right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – PHI 23
  • Q4 08:23 FG PHI (8:23) 6-C.Sturgis 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. NYG 7 – PHI 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:48) 8-D.Jones punts 51 yards to NYG 33, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 17-D.Harris to NYG 37 for 4 yards (42-C.Maragos).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 47%

    (:24) 23-R.Jennings left end to PHI 43 for -2 yards (55-B.Graham).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 20 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (13:54) 8-D.Jones punts 57 yards to NYG 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 17-D.Harris to NYG 10 for no gain (14-R.Cooper). PENALTY on NYG-33-B.McGee, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NYG 10. Penalty on NYG-23-R.Jennings, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 16 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:44) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to PHI 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 25 for -2 yards (43-C.Dahl).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:21) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to PHI 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-53-J.Brinkley. PENALTY on PHI-38-E.Biggers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 30.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 12 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:20) 8-D.Jones punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:26) 9-B.Wing punts 27 yards to PHI 34, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-19-M.White.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 18 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:54) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to PHI 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 15 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:19) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to PHI 43, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:16) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to PHI 6, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 10 for 4 yards (43-C.Dahl). PHI-43-D.Sproles was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:47) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to PHI 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 40 for 13 yards (94-M.Herzlich).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 89%

    (8:23) 6-C.Sturgis 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.