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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 61

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(1:26) 9-B.Wing punts 27 yards to PHI 34, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-19-M.White.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.86 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP