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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 57

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to PHI 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.38 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model