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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 41
New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7
What Actually Happened
(:24) 23-R.Jennings left end to PHI 43 for -2 yards (55-B.Graham).
The Three Options
GO
+1.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.88 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
KICK
-0.81 EP
- 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
- 53% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT
-0.64 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.64 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
