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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 54

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to PHI 6, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 10 for 4 yards (43-C.Dahl). PHI-43-D.Sproles was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP