Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 64

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

(7:44) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to PHI 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 25 for -2 yards (43-C.Dahl).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.49 EP
73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model