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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 94

New York Giants 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 9-B.Wing punts 51 yards to PHI 43, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.68 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.55 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 94, worth -5.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 52, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model