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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
Sunday 2015-10-18 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

BAL
54.2%
SF
45.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF defense: +0.155 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.053 vs Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.011 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BAL 24
–
SF 22
Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

BAL

Terrence Brooks S Out Thumb
Chris Canty DE Out Calf
Breshad Perriman WR Out Knee
Darren Waller WR Out Concussion
Lardarius Webb CB Doubtful Thigh
Chris Givens WR Questionable Ankle
Elvis Dumervil LB Questionable Thigh
Justin Forsett RB Questionable Ankle
Crockett Gillmore TE Questionable Calf
Steve Smith WR Questionable Back
Marshal Yanda G Questionable Ankle
Daryl Smith LB Probable Not Injury Related

SF

Reggie Bush RB Doubtful Calf
Ahmad Brooks LB Questionable Not Injury Related
Vernon Davis TE Questionable Knee
Bruce Ellington WR Questionable Calf
Eli Harold LB Questionable Knee
Carlos Hyde RB Questionable Foot
Brandon Thomas G Questionable Ankle
Alex Boone G Probable Shoulder
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Not Injury Related
Vance McDonald TE Probable Chest
Joe Staley T Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 20
–
SF 25

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:05 FG SF (7:05) 9-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. BAL 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 02:00 FG SF (2:00) 9-P.Dawson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. BAL 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 13:21 FG BAL (13:21) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – SF 6
  • Q2 12:37 TD SF (12:37) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 82-T.Smith for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at BAL-36, YAC-36. BAL 3 – SF 12
  • Q2 08:09 FG SF (8:09) 9-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. BAL 3 – SF 16
  • Q2 04:19 FG BAL (4:19) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 6 – SF 16
  • Q3 07:39 FG SF (7:39) 9-P.Dawson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. BAL 6 – SF 19
  • Q3 02:36 TD BAL (2:36) 5-J.Flacco pass deep left to 89-S.Smith for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught pass 5-yds deep in end zone. 0-yds YAC BAL 12 – SF 19
  • Q4 10:59 TD SF (10:59) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass deep right to 11-Q.Patton for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-Z.Smith]. BAL 13 – SF 25
  • Q4 05:22 TD BAL (5:22) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-K.Aiken for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – SF 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 56%

    (11:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 22 yards to BAL 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (8:56) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to SF 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 38-J.Hayne to SF 36 for 7 yards (41-A.Levine). FUMBLES (41-A.Levine), recovered by SF-36-D.Johnson at SF 33. 36-D.Johnson to SF 33 for no gain (25-T.Walker). J.Hayne credited with 4-yd return.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 62%

    (7:05) 9-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:36) 4-S.Koch punts 62 yards to SF 14, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-27-A.Jackson.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%

    (2:00) 9-P.Dawson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (13:21) 9-J.Tucker 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (8:09) 9-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

    (4:19) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:59) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to BAL 24, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-J.Ross to BAL 33 for 9 yards (36-D.Johnson).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (:48) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to SF 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 38-J.Hayne.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 20 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 84%

    (7:39) 9-P.Dawson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:12) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to BAL 44, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-56-S.Skov.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 79%

    (13:42) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (5:22) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 11-K.Aiken for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 20%

    (1:15) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.