Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 80

San Francisco 49ers 19 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(2:12) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to BAL 44, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-56-S.Skov.

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.65 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model