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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 6 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(:48) 4-S.Koch punts 51 yards to SF 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 38-J.Hayne.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.52 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model