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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 18

Baltimore Ravens 3 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.19 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model