Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(5:36) 4-S.Koch punts 62 yards to SF 14, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-27-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.87 EP
56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model