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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 16 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 9-P.Dawson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.96 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT +0.54 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model