Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to SF 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 38-J.Hayne to SF 36 for 7 yards (41-A.Levine). FUMBLES (41-A.Levine), recovered by SF-36-D.Johnson at SF 33. 36-D.Johnson to SF 33 for no gain (25-T.Walker). J.Hayne credited with 4-yd return.

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.54 EP
67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model