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San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 20:30 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

SF
19.9%
NYG
80.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.167 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Eli Manning (NYG) +0.169 vs Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.144 EPA/dropback
  • NYG offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 19
–
NYG 30
Projected margin: NYG by 11 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

SF

Vernon Davis TE Out Knee
Ahmad Brooks LB Doubtful Not Injury Related
Quinton Patton WR Questionable Concussion
Joe Staley T Questionable Knee
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Not Injury Related
L.J. McCray S Probable Knee
Vance McDonald TE Probable Chest
Alex Boone G Probable Shoulder

NYG

Robert Ayers DE Out Hamstring
Victor Cruz WR Out Calf
Devon Kennard LB Out Hamstring
George Selvie DE Out Calf
Jonathan Casillas LB Questionable Calf
Jayron Hosley CB Questionable Concussion
Trumaine McBride CB Questionable Groin
Jerome Cunningham TE Probable Knee
Ereck Flowers T Probable Ankle
Markus Kuhn DT Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 27
–
NYG 30

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:25 FG SF (11:25) 9-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – NYG 0
  • Q1 06:29 FG NYG (6:29) 3-J.Brown 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. SF 3 – NYG 3
  • Q2 12:20 TD NYG (12:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 34-S.Vereen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – NYG 9
  • Q2 04:02 FG NYG (4:02) 3-J.Brown 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. SF 3 – NYG 13
  • Q2 01:05 FG SF (1:05) 9-P.Dawson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 6 – NYG 13
  • Q3 08:06 TD SF (8:06) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short right to 81-A.Boldin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 12 – NYG 13
  • Q3 01:27 TD NYG (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-A.Lynch]. SF 13 – NYG 19
  • Q4 11:53 TD SF (11:53) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick pass short middle to 88-G.Celek for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – NYG 20
  • Q4 04:37 FG NYG (4:37) 3-J.Brown 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. SF 20 – NYG 23
  • Q4 01:49 TD SF (1:49) 28-C.Hyde left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – NYG 23
  • Q4 00:26 TD NYG (:26) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 84-L.Donnell for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 27 – NYG 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 4 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 83%

    (11:25) 9-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (6:29) 3-J.Brown 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to NYG 20, Center-86-K.Nelson. 17-D.Harris to NYG 29 for 9 yards (89-V.McDonald, 50-N.Bellore). PENALTY on NYG-18-G.Davis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 29.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 8 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:17) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to NYG 26, Center-86-K.Nelson. 17-D.Harris to NYG 34 for 8 yards (56-S.Skov, 50-N.Bellore).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 86%

    (4:02) 3-J.Brown 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.45 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%

    (1:05) 9-P.Dawson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 33%

    (13:03) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to SF 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 38-J.Hayne.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:04) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to SF 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 38-J.Hayne to SF 34 for 16 yards (53-J.Brinkley, 94-M.Herzlich).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 16 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to NYG 25, Center-86-K.Nelson. 17-D.Harris to NYG 39 for 14 yards (36-D.Johnson).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (4:37) 3-J.Brown 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.