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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(3:16) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to NYG 20, Center-86-K.Nelson. 17-D.Harris to NYG 29 for 9 yards (89-V.McDonald, 50-N.Bellore). PENALTY on NYG-18-G.Davis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.80 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 28, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model