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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 5

New York Giants 20 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 3-J.Brown 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +3.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP