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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 9-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.39 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model