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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 47

New York Giants 13 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 9-B.Wing punts 35 yards to SF 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 38-J.Hayne.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.19 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP