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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 23

New York Giants 10 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 3-J.Brown 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.76 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model