Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New York Giants 10

(8:17) 5-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to NYG 26, Center-86-K.Nelson. 17-D.Harris to NYG 34 for 8 yards (56-S.Skov, 50-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.89 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model