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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
Sunday 2015-10-11 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

NO
46.7%
PHI
53.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NO defense: +0.171 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 22
–
PHI 24
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Knee
Thomas Morstead P Out right Quadricep
Bobby Richardson DE Questionable Hip
Jahri Evans G Questionable Knee
Marques Colston WR Probable Not Injury Related
Brandin Cooks WR Probable Ankle
Tim Lelito G Probable Back
Kevin Williams DT Probable Not Injury Related
Jairus Byrd S Probable Knee
Keenan Lewis CB Probable Hip

PHI

Kiko Alonso LB Out Knee
Brandon Bair DE Out Groin
Mychal Kendricks LB Out Hamstring
Jason Peters T Questionable Quadricep
Allen Barbre G Probable Groin
Taylor Hart DE Probable Shoulder
Lane Johnson T Probable Knee
Chris Maragos S Probable Quadricep
Byron Maxwell CB Probable Quadricep
Cedric Thornton DE Probable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 17
–
PHI 39

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:39 TD NO (3:39) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 82-B.Watson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – PHI 0
  • Q2 11:52 TD PHI (11:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short left to 13-J.Huff for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – PHI 6
  • Q2 00:15 FG PHI (:15) 6-C.Sturgis 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. NO 7 – PHI 10
  • Q3 11:15 FG NO (11:15) 2-Z.Hocker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown. NO 10 – PHI 10
  • Q3 06:49 TD PHI (6:49) 24-R.Mathews up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. NO 10 – PHI 16
  • Q3 06:36 TD PHI (6:36) (Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 87-B.Celek for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – PHI 23
  • Q3 00:34 FG PHI (:34) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. NO 10 – PHI 26
  • Q4 10:15 FG PHI (10:15) 6-C.Sturgis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. NO 10 – PHI 29
  • Q4 04:23 FG PHI (4:23) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. NO 10 – PHI 32
  • Q4 03:48 TD PHI (3:48) (Shotgun) 29-D.Murray left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – PHI 38
  • Q4 00:04 TD NO (:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-B.Cooks for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – PHI 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 52%

    (13:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass incomplete deep right to 14-R.Cooper.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 17 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 36%

    (10:41) 4-B.Fields punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:41) 4-B.Fields punts 57 yards to PHI 19, Center-47-J.Drescher, downed by NO-20-B.Dixon.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:25) 4-B.Fields punts 49 yards to PHI 31, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 62%

    (6:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass incomplete deep left to 14-R.Cooper (21-K.Lewis). PHI-14-R.Cooper was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PHI-17-N.Agholor was injured during the play.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:44) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to NO 37, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 23-M.Murphy to NO 46 for 9 yards (42-C.Maragos). PENALTY on NO-20-B.Dixon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 38.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 88%

    (:15) 6-C.Sturgis 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (11:15) 2-Z.Hocker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:05) 4-B.Fields punts 13 yards to 50, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (:34) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:15) 4-B.Fields punts 36 yards to PHI 19, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (10:15) 6-C.Sturgis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 86%

    (4:23) 6-C.Sturgis 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.10 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%

    (:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-B.Cooks for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.