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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(6:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass incomplete deep left to 14-R.Cooper (21-K.Lewis). PHI-14-R.Cooper was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PHI-17-N.Agholor was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.40 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 35, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 45, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP