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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 23

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 4-B.Fields punts 13 yards to 50, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.57 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP