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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 26 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 6-C.Sturgis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 8, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model