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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 14

New Orleans Saints 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 39

What Actually Happened

(:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 10-B.Cooks for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +2.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 14, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +2.10 EP