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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 4-B.Fields punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.11 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model