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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 3

New Orleans Saints 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 2-Z.Hocker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP