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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
Sunday 2015-10-04 · 09:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NYJ
67.2%
MIA
32.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • MIA defense: +0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.229 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • NYJ crossing 5 time zone(s)
  • Ryan Tannehill (MIA): -0.010 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 26
–
MIA 20
Projected margin: NYJ by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NYJ

Willie Colon G Out Knee
Jeff Cumberland TE Out Concussion
Chris Owusu WR Out Knee
Trevor Reilly LB Out Finger
Darrin Walls CB Out Hamstring
Eric Decker WR Questionable Knee
T.J. Barnes DT Probable Ankle
Stephen Bowen DE Probable Knee
James Carpenter G Probable Back
Quinton Coples LB Probable Elbow
Antonio Cromartie CB Probable Hip
David Harris LB Probable Finger
Chris Ivory RB Probable Quadricep
Jaiquawn Jarrett S Probable Knee
Darrelle Revis CB Probable Hamstring
Devin Smith WR Probable Ribs

MIA

Dion Sims TE Out Concussion
Branden Albert T Doubtful Hamstring
Jordan Cameron TE Questionable Groin
Jonas Gray RB Questionable Calf
Earl Mitchell DT Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 27
–
MIA 14

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:56 TD NYJ (10:56) 33-C.Ivory left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYJ 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 04:40 FG NYJ (4:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 10 – MIA 0
  • Q2 08:52 FG NYJ (8:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 13 – MIA 0
  • Q2 07:13 TD MIA (7:13) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 86-J.Stoneburner for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 13 – MIA 6
  • Q2 00:37 TD NYJ (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 87-E.Decker for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 19 – MIA 7
  • Q3 10:29 TD NYJ (10:29) #60 Ferguson reports eligible. 30-Z.Stacy left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 26 – MIA 7
  • Q4 10:05 TD MIA (10:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 10-K.Stills for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. That is Kenny Stills' first touchdown for the Dolphins NYJ 27 – MIA 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:26) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to NYJ 12, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 27 for 15 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:21) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to NYJ 38, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (4:40) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:59) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 37 yards to NYJ 34, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 38 for 4 yards (46-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on NYJ-20-M.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 34.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:25) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to MIA 26, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-J.Landry ran ob at MIA 40 for 14 yards (55-L.Mauldin). MIA-58-C.McCain was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:42) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 29 yards to NYJ 32, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 74%

    (8:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:47) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (3:10) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to NYJ 14, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 25 for 11 yards (42-S.Paysinger).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:17) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to NYJ 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 25 for 12 yards (52-K.Sheppard). Penalty on NYJ-55-L.Mauldin, Unnecessary Roughness, declined. PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.McDougle, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 19.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 37%

    (7:28) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 84-J.Cameron (21-M.Gilchrist).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 86%

    (4:34) 2-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 47%

    (3:30) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 10-K.Stills.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 17 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 26%

    (:52) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 39 yards to NYJ 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (11:11) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-J.Landry to NYJ 37 for 28 yards (55-L.Mauldin).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:13) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-J.Landry pushed ob at NYJ 40 for 25 yards (30-Z.Stacy).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (5:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle intended for 14-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 24-D.Revis at NYJ -6. Touchback. PENALTY on MIA-14-J.Landry, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 20.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:15) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 39 yards to MIA 16, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds. Penalty on MIA-31-M.Thomas, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 82%

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 84-J.Cameron INTERCEPTED by 20-M.Williams at NYJ -3. Touchback.