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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 73

New York Jets 27 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(11:11) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-J.Landry to NYJ 37 for 28 yards (55-L.Mauldin).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.42 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 31, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model