Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 10

(13:42) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 29 yards to NYJ 32, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.04 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model