Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 72

New York Jets 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to MIA 26, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-J.Landry ran ob at MIA 40 for 14 yards (55-L.Mauldin). MIA-58-C.McCain was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.95 EP
57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 72, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model