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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 30

New York Jets 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(8:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.18 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model