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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 62

New York Jets 13 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(4:47) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.59 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model