Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 37 yards to NYJ 34, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 38 for 4 yards (46-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on NYJ-20-M.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.21 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model