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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CIN
67.3%
BAL
32.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.009 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.399 EPA/dropback
  • BAL offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
BAL 19
Projected margin: CIN by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CIN

Pat Sims DT Out Hip
Marcus Hardison DT Doubtful Knee
Wallace Gilberry DE Probable Thigh
A.J. Green WR Probable Knee
Reggie Nelson S Probable Groin
Andre Smith T Probable Buttocks
Andrew Whitworth T Probable Back

BAL

Chris Canty DE Out Calf
Eugene Monroe T Out Concussion
Breshad Perriman WR Out Knee
Lorenzo Taliaferro RB Questionable Foot
Tray Walker CB Questionable Thigh
Will Hill S Probable Knee
C.J. Mosley LB Probable Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 28
–
BAL 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:27 TD CIN (7:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – BAL 0
  • Q2 12:23 TD CIN (12:23) (No Huddle) 14-A.Dalton pass deep middle to 82-M.Jones for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. No. 23 - Lewis (BAL) injured on play. CIN 13 – BAL 0
  • Q3 06:37 TD BAL (6:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-S.Smith for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. No. 27 - Kilpatrick (CIN) injured on play. Smith makes catch at CIN45, breaks two tackles and runs down right sideline for TD. CIN 14 – BAL 6
  • Q4 13:32 FG BAL (13:32) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 14 – BAL 10
  • Q4 07:02 TD BAL (7:02) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CIN 38 for -6 yards (58-E.Dumervil). FUMBLES (58-E.Dumervil) [58-E.Dumervil], RECOVERED by BAL-57-C.Mosley at CIN 41. 57-C.Mosley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 14 – BAL 16
  • Q4 06:49 TD CIN (6:49) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 18-A.Green for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 20 – BAL 17
  • Q4 04:03 TD BAL (4:03) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 89-S.Smith for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Steve Smith ties Ravens' single game record with 13 receptions. Priest Holmes shares record. CIN 21 – BAL 23
  • Q4 02:16 TD CIN (2:16) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 27 – BAL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (12:49) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-B.Tate to CIN 33 for 18 yards (28-B.Trawick).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 66%

    (1:46) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:09) (Punt formation) 41-A.Levine right end to BAL 29 for 2 yards (30-C.Peerman). FUMBLES (30-C.Peerman), and recovers at BAL 30. 41-A.Levine to BAL 30 for no gain (30-C.Peerman). fake punt rushed by #41 Levine

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 16%

    (7:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-B.Tate to CIN 10 for 3 yards (12-D.Waller). PENALTY on BAL-44-K.Juszczyk, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (2:00) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 85-T.Eifert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 85-T.Eifert (28-B.Trawick).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 2 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (:41) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 35 yards to CIN 41, Center-46-M.Cox. 24-A.Jones to CIN 41 for no gain (12-D.Waller).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 21%

    (6:37) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-S.Smith for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. No. 27 - Kilpatrick (CIN) injured on play. Smith makes catch at CIN45, breaks two tackles and runs down right sideline for TD.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (4:37) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 57 yards to BAL 15, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-M.Campanaro to BAL 36 for 21 yards (46-C.Harris).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (13:32) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 19 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:06) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to BAL 23, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-M.Campanaro to BAL 37 for 14 yards (26-J.Shaw).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:16) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to CIN 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-B.Tate to CIN 22 for 4 yards (28-B.Trawick).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 17 at the 87 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 87-M.Williams.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 8 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.90 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%

    (:06) 25-G.Bernard right tackle to BAL 3 for 5 yards (93-L.Guy; 51-D.Smith).